Interesting Possible Trade in Gold and GDX

Gold appears to be forming a higher low on the intermediate-term timeframe. The longer term timeframe is clearly still down with a lower high established on the 3 year chart near $1300 this past January. For traders comfortable with a shorter-term timeframe however, the higher low put in this past week gives an interesting entry point for a possible run back to the 1250 area to start. The miners, as represented by GDX, appear to be confirming and sending a slightly more positive signal with a sharply rising 50 day moving average.

So, risk on a trade at this point for either gold or GDX (some miners like NEM look much more positive) is clearly defined around $1190 for gold with an initial upside possibility of $1250 and reasonable potential for a retest of the downward sloping longer-term trendline between $1250 and $1300. Even a retest of resistance at $1300 would be a major victory for the gold price since I see only lower highs on the long-term chart since October of 2012.